Edition 4, November 2009 (Updated January 2010)

Percentage of US firms with more than 200 employees that offer retiree health benefits: (from a graph) (06W1) (Rcgd))

The percentage of the US on private medical insurance not job-related fell from 6.9 to 5.5% during 1997-2003 (04F2).

During 1997-2003 the percentage of the US population enrolled in public health insurance (Medicaid and SCHIP) increased from 7.6 to 11.9% while the percentage of uninsured fell from 15.4 to 15.0% (04F2).

The percentage of children enrolled in programs such as State Children's Health Insurance Program (SCHIP) increased from 37.9 to 49.3% during 2001-03 (This was a big reason why the number of US uninsured did not grow significantly during 2001-03 (04F2).

During the economic boom of the late 1990s, the percentage of Americans with health benefits tied to their jobs rose modestly, e.g. employer medical insurance covered 65.1% of the population in 1997 (04F2).

The number of Americans with job-related health benefits declined to 63 from 67% between 2001-03 (04F2). The cost of health insurance increased 28% over these two years (04F2).

Some 5.5 million people received long-term disability benefits in 2002, according to the U.S. Department of Labor, a 62% jump since 1992 (03P2).

As recently as 3-5 years ago, most companies paid health benefits for the long-term disabled until they were 65 (when federal Medicare benefits kick in). Today, 15% of companies do. 27% of companies now fire disabled workers as soon as they go on long-term disability (03P2).

In a survey of 435 large employers in 12/02, The Kaiser Family Foundation found that 5% considered themselves very or somewhat likely to terminate subsidized health care coverage for current retirees at some point in the future (03C2).

About 22% or American retirees (about 8.8 million people) get health insurance through a former employer, according to the Department of Labor (03C2).

The United Steelworkers of America says that nearly 200,000 retired steelworkers nationwide have lost health care benefits or will lose them in the coming months because of the bankruptcies of LTV and Bethlehem Steel (03C2).

Americans without Health Insurance, in millions (Wall Street Journal (9/12/03)) (from a graph)

On average, large employers pay 60% of retirees' health-care costs, while retirees contribute the remaining 40% (02K1). The companies surveyed have 5.4 million employees and their family members. Health care benefits cost them $12.5 billion in 2001 and an estimated $14.5 billion in 2002 (02K1).

About 85% of large employers said they would continue to pass on more health care costs to retirees. Over 2002 retiree contributions increased an average of 20% (02K1).

More than one third of the large employers that offer health care to retired workers have recently stopped such benefits for future retirees (13%), or expect to do so within the next three years (22%) (02K1) (Rcgd).

Only 38% of all new jobs in the US offered health benefits, vs. 43% in 1979 (93Z2).

In 2000 the number of Americans with no health-care insurance fell 600,000 to 38.7 million from 39.3 million in 1999 (Census Bureau data) (Pittsburgh Post Gazette (12/6/01)).

In 2001 the number of Americans with no health insurance increased to 41.2 million (14.6%) from 39.8 million (14.2%) in 2000 (Census Bureau data) (Wall Street Journal (9/30/02)).

One out of every 8 Americans have no private or public health insurance, and 65% of these 32.7 million people are working adults and their families. 178 million Americans have private health insurance, including 20 million American Medicare beneficiaries who have purchased private supplemental insurance. Medicaid covers 12 million Americans who are covered solely by Medicaid. Nationwide, America's private hospitals in 1984, handed out $6.9 billion in debts and charity. The study found a major portion of this uncompensated care - $6.7 billion- was cost-shifted onto the hospital bills of privately insured patients (Stephen G. Thompkins, Pittsburgh Press (8/4/86) reporting on an AHA study "Cost and Compassion").

Pre-Medicare-eligible Retired Employees receiving Medical Coverage from Employers (for employers with 500+ workers) (William M. Mercer Inc. data) (Wall Street Journal (3/13/01)):

In 1998 (the latest year for which full statistics are available) 62.9% of US private sector workers had employer-provided health insurance (vs. 63.1% in 1989) (01U1).

The number of Americans without health insurance increased by 1.1 million during 1996, although the percentage without it, 15.6%, remained unchanged (Census Bureau data) (Pittsburgh Post Gazette (9/30/97)).

US Health Care Economics (Peter T. Kilborn, Pittsburgh Post Gazette (2/28/99))

Americans Without Health Insurance (Wall Street Journal (2/23/98) and (9/28/98) and (9/30/02)) (Census Bureau data) (from a graph) (Numbers are in millions)

Some 39% of the 503 small businesses surveyed said they offer health-care benefits in mid-1998 (46% in mid-1996). (Wall Street Journal (6/24/98)).

Some 57% of companies provided dental coverage in 1995, vs. 77% in 1984. Among those who retained coverage (in 1995), 54% helped pay for individual coverage, vs. 34% in 1988 (Wall Street Journal (11/10/98)) (Bureau of Labor Statistics data).

The number of new hourly jobs with health insurance dropped from 23% of the total in 1979 to 15% in 1988 (Clare Ansberry, Thomas F. O'Boyle, "Voice of a Generation Fear for Status of American Dream", Wall Street Journal (8/12/92)).

Number of people in the US without health insurance for all of 1992: 37.4 million (Wall Street Journal (10/05/93)) (22.2% under age 18; 42.2% aged 18-34; 27.3% aged 35-54, 8.3% over age 55).

In a study of 56 retiree health plans offered by companies with at least 5000 active employees, it was found that 17% have "virtually eliminated their liabilities for such benefits by requiring retirees to pay the full premium. 20% have eliminated such plans altogether for new hires (02G1).

The share of private-sector establishments offering health insurance to retirees under age 65 dropped to 12% in 2000 from 21.6% in 1997. Offerings to retirees who were 65 and older dropped to 10.7% from 19.5% during 1997-2000 (02G1).

Employers who continue to offer retiree health benefits to future retirees and new hires have reduced their share of the premiums, on average, from 80% for current retirees to less than 60% for future retirees. They are also requiring longer stints at the company to qualify, with only about 25% of the plans offering benefits as of last year to workers retiring with 5 or fewer years of service, compared with nearly 90% in 1984 (02G1).

Although 25% of companies have imposed caps on their contributions to each retiree's health care premiums, 39% have imposed them for current employees who qualify for future benefits, and 45% have caps in place for new hires. Also the caps are dropping. The median cap of $4450 for current retirees under age 65 drops to $3900 for future retirees (02G1).

In the 1980s, a 60-year-old employee with 10 years on the job could expect to contribute 39% of total lifetime retirement medical costs not paid by Medicare. By 2001, that share had shop up to 68%. By 2031, retirees shifted to medical accounts or plans with caps can expect to pay 92% of these costs (02G1).

A survey of 1002 US employers of 10/13/05 by the Families and Work Institute shows that 17% of US companies now offer full pay during maternity leave, vs. 27% in 1998. Another 2005 survey of 386 human resource managers by Society for human resource managers showed that 17% of those employers paid maternity leave, down from 19% in 2001 (05S2).

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Job seekers in July 2009 outnumber openings 6 to 1, the worst ratio since the government began tracking open positions in 2000. Some 2.4 million full-time permanent jobs were open, with 14.5 million people officially unemployed. At the beginning of 2009, job seekers outnumbered jobs 4 to 1. In the recession of 2001, the number of jobless reached little more than twice the number of full-time job openings. From the beginning of the recession in December 2007 through July of 2009, job openings declined 45% in the West, 36% in the Midwest, and 23% in the Northeast (09G3). 

Some 17.5% of workers were unemployed in October 2009. The previous high was 17.1% in December of 1982. This broader rate includes the officially unemployed, who have looked for work in the past four weeks. It also includes discouraged workers who have looked in the past year, as well as part-time workers who want to be working full time. The broader rate is highest in states that had big housing bubbles, e.g. CA and AZ, or have large manufacturing sectors, e.g. MI, OH, OR, RI, and SC. (09L2)

A recent book by Carmen M. Reinhart and Kenneth S. Rogoff, two economists, found that over the last century the typical crisis had caused the jobless rate in the country where it occurred to rise for almost five years. By that standard, the US jobless rate will continue to rise for two more years, through the end of 2011. (09L2)

Nearly 16 million people are now unemployed, and more than 7 million jobs have been lost since late 2007. (09L2)

In Spain, unemployment among people ages 16-24 is 42.9%, the highest in Europe, and more than double Spain's overall rate (19.3%). The overall unemployment rate in the EU is 9.8%. The unemployment rate among Spanish young people at the height of the boom just before the current recession was 17.5% (10S1).

In the last 12 months, the jobless rate in the US among workers ages16-24 has risen to 19.1 from 13.9%. Economists expect that rate to remain high, even as the overall jobless rate in the US (now 10%) begins to shrink (10S1).

Some current youth unemployment rates: Greece-25%; Ireland-28.4%; Italy-26.9%; Slovakia-27.9%; Poland 21.2% (vs. 35% a few years ago.) (10S1).

Job seekers in July 2009 outnumber openings 6 to 1, the worst ratio since the government began tracking open positions in 2000. Some 2.4 million full-time permanent jobs were open, with 14.5 million people officially unemployed. At the beginning of 2009, job seekers outnumbered jobs 4 to 1. In the recession of 2001, the number of jobless reached little more than twice the number of full-time job openings. From the beginning of the recession in December 2007 through July of 2009, job openings declined 45% in the West, 36% in the Midwest, and 23% in the Northeast (09G3). 

Legally mandated severance costs in weeks of pay (based on a set of assumptions including 20 years of full-time employment) Source: World Bank. (06W4) (NOTE: This might not be relevant to the globalization issue.)
US (0); Italy (1.7); Singapore (4.0); Japan (8.6); UK (22.1); France (31.8); India (55.9); Germany (69.3); China (91.0); Indonesia (108.3); Sri Lanka (177.7); Egypt (186.3); Sierra Leone (328.7); Zimbabwe (446.3).

About 3.6 million American workers ran out of unemployment insurance benefits in 2004, the most in at least 3 decades (John Leland, "For Unemployed, Wait for New Work Grows Longer", New York Times (1/9/05)). (Rcgd)

According to the Canadian Center for Policy Alternatives, the percentage of unemployed US workers who qualified for unemployment insurance (now known as "employment insurance") dropped from 87% in 1989 to 39% in 2001 (03M3) (Rgcd)

Only 15% of workers displaced in the last recession expect to return to their former jobs, compared with an average of 44% in four previous recessions (93Z2). (Rcgd)

Nationwide, the maximum severance offered by 168 employers to rank-and-file employees averaged 24 weeks of pay (in 2001?), compared with 30 weeks in 1997, says a survey by Manchester Inc. a career-management firm. Because employees stay on jobs for shorter periods these days, tenure-based packages may not be as big (Wall Street Journal (6/5/01)).

Comments: The mid-1990s increase probably resulted from a real estate valuation bubble bursting. The long-term trend probably reflects the need to compete with growing Chinese exports and Chinese wages far smaller than Japan's.

Since the Canadian-US free trade agreement came into effect, the Canadian Unemployment Insurance Program has been repeatedly reformed so that less than 50% of unemployed workers now qualify for benefits, vs. over 90% in 1988. Welfare benefits have also been cut severely. Social spending has fallen sharply as a share of the Canadian economy (Wall Street Journal (12/23/97)). (Rcgd)

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Corporations are now shifting from "defined benefit" (guaranteed monthly payments based on salary and years of service paid by the corporation for the rest of your life) to "defined contribution" (an amount of your salary you can put into your retirement account). From 1978 to 2009, the number of "defined benefit" plans declined from 128,041 (covering 41% of private sector workers) to 26,000. According to the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, only 21% of workers in the private sector have "defined benefit" plans (09R2). 

Corporations are now shifting from "defined benefit" (guaranteed monthly payments based on salary and years of service paid by the corporation for the rest of your life) to "defined contribution" (an amount of your salary you can put into your retirement account). From 1978 to 2009, the number of "defined benefit" plans declined from 128,041 (covering 41% of private sector workers) to 26,000. According to the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, only 21% of workers in the private sector have "defined benefit" plans (09R2). 

Percentage of working-age households at risk of being unable to maintain their pre-retirement standard of living in retirement, by age and income (from a chart prepared by Retirement Research at Boston College) (06R1).

The tendency of younger workers to have more problems is attributed to (declining) rates of personal savings, changes (mainly reductions or eliminations) in employer pension plans, and changes in social security in recent decades (06R1).

In 2004, 11% of Fortune 1000 companies had frozen or terminated pension plans, up from 7% in 2003 according to Watson Wyatt Worldwide. Experts expect the trend to continue. Companies in the S&P 500 have $292 billion in non-funded health care and other retirement benefits, vs. a $150 billion pension-funding shortfall (S&P data of 2005) (Len Boselovic and Christopher Snowbeck, "Future of health, pension benefits cloudy", Pittsburgh Post Gazette (12/29/05), p. E1.).

Degree to which U.S. single-employer pension plans are under-funded (Source: The Pension Benefit Guaranty Corporation) (From a chart in Pittsburgh Post Gazette (8/15/05) p. A8) (in billions of US$). ((Rcgd)  

Magnitude of US Pension Plan Deficits (05G1) (Rcgd)

About 0% of employees in the US currently has a traditional pension plan with their employers. Two decades ago the figure was 40% (05G1). (Rcgd)

Companies paid $1.5 billion in premiums in 2003 to the Pension Benefit Guaranty Corp. (The PBGC is not taxpayer-financed.) (04B1).

The number of retirees and workers entitled to pension benefits from PBGC topped one million in 2004 (04B1).

The PBGC paid out $3.0 billion in retirement benefits to US retirees during the fiscal year ending 9/30/04 (04B1).

The Pension Benefit Guaranty Corp. (PBGC), the federal agency that insures pension plans covering more than 44 million Americans, reported a record deficit of $23.5 billion on 11/15/04, vs. the previous record of $11.5 billion set in 2003 (04B1). Large corporate pension plans accounted for nearly the entire PBGC deficit, which measures the difference between the PBGC's $40.1 billion in assets and the $63.6 billion in benefits it is obligated to pay. In 2001 the PBGC had a surplus of $7.8 billion (04B1).

In 2003, 1119 company pension plans were terminated in the US. Since 2000, companies have shuttered nearly 7500 pension plans in the US (04O1). About 31,000 private sector pension plans still exist in the US (04O1). (Rcgd)

During the first 8 months of 2004, more than 1200 pension plans were terminated in the US, affecting tens of thousands of workers across the US, according to the Pension Benefit Guaranty Corp. (PBGC) (04O1). (Rcgd)

During fiscal year 2002, 144 failed companies with 187,000 retirees turned worker pension plans over to the federal government, vs. 89,000 retirees in FY 2001 (03C2).

Only 15% of all new jobs offered pension benefits, vs. 23% (in 1979?) (93Z2).

During 1950-1975, the percentage of private sector, full-time, year-round employees in jobs where they were earning credits toward a pension roughly doubled to 52%. The employee Benefit Research Institute reported that the share of all civilian non-farm workers who were earning credits toward a pension dropped from about 50% of the labor force in 1979 to 46.1% in 1983 and 44.2% in 1988. This means that 57 million workers weren't earning credits. Experts expect that for a while, the ratio of elderly retirees receiving pensions will grow beyond the current 30%, reflecting the upward surge in pension-covered jobs in 1950-75 and a recent law reducing, to 5 years, the time a person must usually work in a firm's plan to "vest"- earn a permanent right to some future pension. But the number of recipients will level off and perhaps even start dropping because of the decline in workers earning credits on the job (91U1).

In 1998 (the latest year for which full statistics are available) 49.2% had employer-provided pension plans (vs.44.3% in 1989 and 51.1% in 1978) (01U1).

An article by Ellen E. Schultz (Wall Street Journal (7/27/00)) discusses the trend of US employers devising all types of complex revisions to pension rules that result in reduced pensions without employees being aware of what is happening. A lawyer who runs a pension-consulting firm in Dallas was quoted as saying, "Never have so few plundered so much from so many." (Rcgd)

Roughly half of the workers on private payrolls do not have employer-sponsored retirement plans at all. About 74% of the best-paid fifth of American workers participate in some form of pension plan on the job, but only 17% of the lowest-paid fifth do (Economic Policy Institute analysis of Labor Department data) (Wall Street Journal (3/7/02)).

About 19% of the 503 small businesses surveyed said they offer retirement plans in mid-1998. The figure for mid-1996 was 28% (Wall Street Journal (6/24/98)). (Rcgd)

The number of new hourly jobs with pensions dropped to 30% of the total in 1988 from 43% in 1979 (Clare Ansberry, Thomas F. O'Boyle, "Voice of a Generation Fear for the Status of American Dream", Wall Street Journal (8/12/92)).

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SECTION [5-D] ~ TEMPORARY EMPLOYMENT/ CONTRACT LABOR ~

The number of US workers working part-time for economic reasons in 2007 was 4.79 million vs. 4.13 million in 2006, the highest since 1993. In 2007, 1.8 million people in the US worked at two (or more?) part-time jobs for economic reasons, the highest number since the government began tracking such data in 1994 (08M1).

The average supermarket employee lost 3 hours per week since 2003, from 32.3 hours to 29.5 hours. Retain workers overall have lost 0.7 hours per week over the same period (08M1).

Overall the part-time share of the job market in the US has been fairly constant, accounting for about 17% of jobs (08M1).

Part-time jobs typically pay 10% to 20% less per hour than comparable full-time work. Often they receive no health or retirement benefits and little job security, even though some "part-timers" work 60 hours per week or more. Those working two part-time jobs are taxed twice for unemployment insurance (08M1).

Number of people in the US working part-time for economic reasons (in millions) (from a chart) (Source: US Labor Department) (08M1)
2001 - 3.2 || 2002 - 4.2 || 2003 - 4.4 || 2004 - 4.4 || 2005 - 4.3 || 2006 - 4.1 || 2007 - 4.3 ||

There are an estimated 117,600 day- laborers in the US on a typical day. An interview of 2600 day-laborers at 264 hiring sites found that they earn a median of $10/ hour and $700/ month. Incredibly high incidence of wage violations and injuries were found. 49% of those interviewed said that in the previous 2 months an employer had not paid them for one or more day's work. 44% said that some employers did not give them any breaks during the workday. 28% said employers had insulted them (06G1).

The Bush administration announced, on 11/14/03, plans to eliminate about half of the 1.7 million federal civilian workers by contracting out jobs. Advocates of this estimate savings of more than 30% (03H1) (Rcgd).

A K-Mart spokesman stated that one of the corporation's goals is to staff the company's 1800 stores mostly with part-time people (who will not be eligible for benefits) (Pittsburgh Post Gazette (9/4/02)).

A decade ago, BankAmerica had mostly full-time employees. Soon, only 19% will work full time; nearly 60% will work fewer than 20 hours per week and receive no benefits (93Z2). (Rcgd)

Part-timers (no benefits) in Japan now make up 23% of Japan's work force, up from 17% in 1995, according to government data. Many of these "part-timers" work 48 hours per week. Both the US and Europe have been adding temporary- and part-time workers to their work forces (Yumiko Ono, Wall Street Journal (12/19/01)). (Rcgd)

Average job tenure in the US: 7 years in 2001; 8 years in 2000; 9 years in 1999. (This is from a survey of about 2000 laid-off clients of outplacement concern Drake Beam Morin as reported in Wall Street Journal, early in 2002.)

About 31% of the 503 small businesses surveyed said they hired temporary workers in 1997. The figure for 1996 was 22% (Wall Street Journal (6/24/98)). (Rcgd)

Europe's temporary-labor market is growing by more than 10%/ year.
US has 40% of the global temporary market.
France has 30% of the global temp market.
3.2% of workers in the Netherlands are temporary workers.
2.2% of workers in the US are temp workers.
1.9% of workers in Britain are temp workers.
(Helene Cooper and Thomas Kamm, "Loosening Up", Wall Street Journal (early 1998).) (Rcgd)

In 1997, Spanish employers and unions agreed to new regulations that reduce severance pay to 33 days/ year worked from 45 days in return for lengthening the duration of labor contracts for first-time hires (Helene Cooper and Thomas Kamm, "Loosening Up", Wall Street Journal (early 1998)).

In France, 86% of new hires are on short-term contracts, usually for 6 months, renewable once, and they frequently have to work nights and weekends (Helene Cooper and Thomas Kamm, "Loosening Up", Wall Street Journal (early 1998)).

US wage increases are not keeping pace with inflation (Source: Economic Outlook Group) (08B1). Comments: My globalization document already has this information - even more detailed information.)

Annual Growth Rate of Wages in private industry, as measured by the employment cost index, (inflation corrected) (from a graph) Note the smaller growth rates after 1980. (09D2) (In gci3.doc Chapter 3, Section [3], Part [3A3])

Those returning to work are taking an average 40% pay cut relative to their old jobs. (09D2)

The decline in wages affects people in all sectors of the economy (09D2).

US wage increases are not keeping pace with inflation (Source: Economic Outlook Group). (My globalization document already has this information - even more detailed information.) (08B1)

Entry-level wages for US college and high school graduates fell more than 4% from 2001 to 2005 in inflation-corrected terms. Entry-level wages for male college graduates fell by 7.3% to $19.72/ hour, while wages for female graduates fell 3.5% to $17.08. For men with high school diplomas, entry-level pay fell by 3.3% to $10.93/ hour from 2001 to 2005 (inflation corrected). For US female high school graduates, entry-level pay fell 4.9% to $9.08/ hour (06G3). ((Rcgd).

Americans put in 350 hours per year more on their jobs than the average European, even more than the Japanese (08R1).

Compensation costs (wages and benefits) for US civilian workers rose 3.1% for all of 2005, vs. 3.7% in 2004. The 2005 increase was the smallest annual increase since 1996. US Wages and salaries were up 2.6% for 2005, not enough to compensate for inflation (3.39%). The costs of benefits such as health insurance rose 4.5% in 2005, vs. 6.9% in 2004. (US Labor Department data) (06P1) ((Rcgd)).

Wage growth in service industries rose 2.7% in 2004 to 3.2% in 2005. In manufacturing (the sector most exposed to global competition) wage growth fell from 2.6% in 2004 to 2.3% in 2005 (06U1). (Rcgd) 

The US Labor Department's inflation report of mid-May, 2005, noted that 80% of the US work force has seen its pay fail to keep up with price increases over the past year. For non-managers in both white- and blue-collar jobs, hourly wage gains have failed to beat inflation every month for the past year. The workweek lengthened in April of 2005, but inflation ate up all the added income from the additional work - and more; over the past year, average weekly earnings have fallen by 0.3% after inflation ("Wages Lag Inflation, Again", New York Times (5/23/05)). ((Rcgd))

In the 1980s and 1990s, 2/3 of US workers who lost jobs in manufacturing industries hit by overseas competition earned less on their next job (study by Lori Kletzer). About 25% of US workers who lost their jobs and were re-employed saw income fall 30% or more (04H2).

Singapore's living standards are higher than Germany's (04H1).

Between 1999 and 2001 the number of US homeowners who spent more than half their income on housing rose 36%, vs. 24% among renters (02A1) (Rcgd).

More than 4 million US households are spending at least 50% of their salaries on rent or mortgages in 2002. This number is 67% greater than in 1998 (Source: Center for Housing Policy) (02A1). (Rcgd) 

In a study of how American industries were affected by increasing import competition in the 1980s and 1990s, it was found that, of the half-million American workers who lost jobs in the furniture sector between 1979-1999, 38% couldn't find new work. About 20% of those who did find new work had to take a pay cut of 30% or more (02H1).

Labor's share of the US GNP: 60.3% in 1979; 59.5% in 1985 (87T1).

Of the 10.7 million new earners added to the economy during 1979-85, 48.6% were paid less than $10,000 (in 1985 $), 30.5% were paid $10,000 to $25,000 (37.6% of the work force was in that range in 1979), and 20.9% were paid more than $25,000 (vs. 23.2% in 1979). Right across the earnings distribution, the new jobs were inferior to those the US economy had been generating before 1979 (87T1).

After correcting for inflation, the compensation to labor per hour of work rose 2.7%/ year during 1960-1969, but fell 0.4%/ year during 1979-1985 (87T1).

Rate of growth of US GNP during 1960-1969 (prior to a significant level of globalization) was 3.8%/ year. During 1979-1985 (as globalization was starting to have significant effects) US GDP growth was 2%/ year (87T1). (Rcgd) 

From 1976-85 the number of middle income male jobs (those paying from 75 to 125% of median male earnings ($13,334-$22,224) declined from 23.4% down to 20.3% of the male work force. The decline was larger (38% down to 32.6%) for male workers who worked full time all year (87T1).

According to a US Department of Labor report on 1998 wages, a 30-year-old American man with a high school diploma earned an average of $29,057 - 20% less, adjusted for reported inflation, than in 1974 (00M1).

Average hourly labor costs for 1990 (from a chart) (data from Institute of German Industries) (92R1) (Obsolete?)

Wage erosion was also a characteristic of the 1980s, especially among poorer and less-educated workers. They had to replace lost income by working an average of two weeks longer each year and rely on a huge influx of working wives. Without these factors, the median household income would have fallen sharply; with them it still stagnated (93Z2).

Between 1973-1984, average family income (in 1984 $) dropped $787 to $31,052 (not including food stamps, Medicare, Medicaid, employer-paid health- and pension benefits). Per-capita income rose, in real terms, to $12,149 (Wall Street Journal (9/8/86)). The family data uses the consumer-price index, while the per-capita series uses a price index based on the consumer-spending component of the GNP.

Income inequality is growing, not only between groups of different occupations and levels of education, but within them (e.g. the income gap between the highest-paid and the lowest-paid lawyers is also widening). This suggests that globalization cannot lie at the heart of the inequality dilemma (95W1).

Trade-related jobs in general, and export-related jobs in particular, pay better than the US overall average, and better even than the higher manufacturing average (95W1).

Some 15 years ago, the average male college graduate earned 49% more than his counterpart with a high school diploma; by 1993 he was earning 83% more (US Labor Department data).

Real family income growth, 1979-1993 (in 1993 dollars) (US Labor Department data): Top 20% - +18%; Fourth 20% - +5%; Middle 20% - minus 3%; Second 20% - minus 8%; Bottom 20% - minus 17%.

Robert Z. Lawrence of Harvard suggests that US wage and job problems stem mostly from items such as slow productivity growth in services, technology changes and housing's high cost (Robert Keatley, Wall Street Journal (10/08/93)).

Between 1989-1999, while the median hourly wage for all workers grew by 2.4%, the median income for all CEOs nearly doubled to an average of 3.5%. CEOs of the 350 biggest corporations earned an average of $12.4 million/ year in salary, bonuses and stock options, a figure that grew more than 500% in the 1990s (01U1).

An average middle-class husband and wife worked 3885 hours in 1998, up 247 hours since 1990. Most of this increase reflects more working women and longer hours for women (01U1).

Year-to-Year percentage change in US employment cost indexes for all civilian workers (Bureau of Labor Statistics data) (Apparently not inflation-adjusted) (from a graph) {w50}

American household income during 1996 was $1083 below the 1989 peak of $36,575 after inflation is taken into account (Census Bureau data) (Pittsburgh Post Gazette (9/30/97)).

The growth in US wage rates during 1979-1993 was virtually flat, after adjusting for inflation and including all benefits. In this period, output per worker-hour (i.e. productivity) increased 10%. The ratio of wages earned by college graduates to high-school graduates rose by 15% during the 1980s (Gene Epstein, Barron's (11/8/93)).

Average annual hours worked by US workers (Sue Shellenbarger, Wall Street Journal (5/16/02))

Since 1972 the median income of men aged 25-34 has fallen 26% after adjustment for inflation. For black men who did not finish high school, earnings fell by 50% between 1973-89 (report by Annie E. Casey Foundation (4/24/95)).

Hourly compensation costs, including wages and benefits, for factory workers (Wall Street Journal (1/26/98)) (Bureau of Labor Statistics data) {w30}

Inflation-adjusted Weekly Earnings for the Bottom 10% of the US Pay Scale (Wall Street Journal (3/28/98)) (from a graph)

Minimum Wages:
Indonesia $2.46/ day (Wall Street Journal (6/4/97))

Real wages for the majority of workers are declining in all three NAFTA countries. Real US median wages: $10.78/ hour in 1993, $10.35/ hour in 1996. (Pittsburgh Post Gazette (7/30/97)).

Median household income for the US remains $1083 below its 1989 peak of $36,575 (inflation-adjusted) (Pittsburgh Post Gazette (9/30/97)).

For a US family headed by a high school graduate or worker with some college, the hours at work per week since the 1960s increased by 17.4%, but real earnings increased during that period by less than 4% (Pittsburgh Post Gazette (8/17/98)).

The proportion of mothers working full time, year-around climbed to 39% of households with kids in 1996 from 17% in 1969. The median income for married couples with children expanded 25% between 1969-96 (inflation-corrected), but without the increased participation by mothers in the labor force, median income would have expanded by only 2% during the same period (Wall Street Journal (9/1/98)).

Number of US multiple-job holders: 4.9% of labor force in 1979, 6.3% in 1997. (Economic Policy Institute data) (Pittsburgh Press (9/15/98)).

Percentage of US Married Couples in which both Husband and Wife Work (US Bureau of Labor Statistics data) (From a chart)

Number of US Work Stoppages Involving 1000 Workers or More (from a plot) (Wall Street Journal (12/16/99))

About 9% of American (home?) mortgages were past due (or in foreclosure) at the end of March 2008. That ratio is rising rapidly as home prices fall and as job markets weaken. The first 3 months of 2008 marked the worst quarter for American homeowners in nearly 3 decades (Source: a report issued by Mortgage Bankers Association) (08B1).

About 8.8% of US home loans were past due or in foreclosure (about 4.8 million loans) on 3/31/08, up from 7.9% at the end of December 2007. At first, past-due mortgages represented mostly high-risk loans made by borrowers with blemished, or "sub-prime" credit. But now, as the economy weakens and as home prices fall in many parts of the US, homeowners with better loans are also falling behind. About 9.7% of loans in 5 Midwestern states were past due (or in foreclosure) in the first quarter of 2008, vs. 10.5% in the 4^th quarter of 2007 (08B1). (In Midwestern states (like Michigan and Ohio) home prices did not soar as much as elsewhere in the US.)

About a third of American homeowners do not have mortgages (08B1).

So far, home prices in the US have fallen by 16% from their peak in the summer of 2006 - the point at which the real estate bubble began its disastrous collapse (Source: Standard & Poor's/ Case-Shiller index). Economists at Lehman Brothers expect the decline in US home prices to bottom out at 25% (relative to peak bubble prices?) (08B1). Comments: Later estimates in the fall of 2008 gave a prediction of a 40% reduction in home prices - apparently relative to peak bubble prices.

A $1 billion ad campaign run by Citicorp from 2001-2006 urged Citicorp customers to take out "home equity loans" (previously called "second mortgages.") Such loans were once considered to be the borrowing of last resort, to be avoided by all but people in dire financial straits. Since the early 1980s, the total value of home equity loans outstanding increased from $1 billion in 1982 to $100 billion in 1988 to more than $1 trillion in 2008. Nearly 25% of Americans with first mortgages have them. Part of the reason for this was that portions of home equity loans were tax-deductible (08S2).

In mid 2008, the portion of people who have home equity loans more than 30 days past due is 55% above its average since the American Bankers Association began tracking it around 1990; delinquencies on home equity loans are 45% higher (2008) (08S2).

For the first time since WWII, the portion of home value that Americans own (in 2008) has fallen to less than 50%. In the 1980s, that portion was 70% (08S2).

The cause of this huge transformation in indebtedness began in the 1970s and early 1980s when federal laws were changed to allow mainstream banks to offer second mortgages as well as loans with interest only, adjustable rates and so-called piggyback features combining first and second mortgages. Prior to that time, such products were marketed primarily to lower-income customers by savings and loan companies and financing companies such as Beneficial and Household Finance (08S2).

U.S. Household debt as a percentage of disposable income (09G1).

Real estate is the biggest household asset at 36% of net worth - and real estate prices have not yet stopped falling (09G1).

US Household financial debt as a percentage of disposable income (from a graph). (09D1)

Experts predict a steady stream of defaults over much of the next decade as interest-only loans mature. Auctioned off at low prices, those foreclosed houses could help break any revival in home prices (09S1).

There are currently 2.8 million active interest-only home loans worth a combined total of $908 billion. In the next 12 months, $71 billion of interest-only loans will reset. In the year after that, another $100 billion in interest-only loans will reset. After mid 2011, another $400 billion will reset. A decade ago, interest-only loans were rare. In 2004, nearly 50% of all homebuyers in California had an interest-only loan. Nationally, about 18% of prime interest-only loans are at least 60 days delinquent (09S1).

The savings rate in the US has been below zero during 2006-2008 (the lowest it has been since the Great Depression) (09R2).

In 2006, spending on advertising was estimated at $155 billion in the US, and $385 billion worldwide (09R2). The worldwide advertising figure is expected to exceed $500 billion by 2010 (09R2).

Credit card debt of the average US consumer is over $3000, and the average household credit card debt is over $8000. These figures do not count the over $5000 of mortgage- and auto debt that the average American carries (09R2).

More Americans now declare bankruptcy than graduate from college (09R2). 

The poorest 80% of the people in the US have seen very little rise in income since the 1970s (09R2). Today the average CEO in the US makes more in a day than the average worker makes in a year (09R2).

The average debt nationally among graduating seniors with loans reached $23,200 in 2008, a sum that has been growing by about 6% / year since 2004. The unemployment rate in the third quarter of 2009 was 10.6% for graduates 20-24 years of age. This is the highest national rate for that group in the 10 years that data have been available. (Bill Schackner, "College grads' average debt exceeds $23K," Pittsburgh Post Gazette, p. A1 (12/02/09).) (NOTE: This is only marginally relevant to the development of a caste system in the U.S.)

About 9% of American (home?) mortgages were past due (or in foreclosure) at the end of March 2008. That ratio is rising rapidly as home prices fall and as job markets weaken. The first 3 months of 2008 marked the worst quarter for American homeowners in nearly 3 decades (Source: a report issued by Mortgage Bankers Association) (08B1).

About 8.8% of US home loans were past due or in foreclosure (about 4.8 million loans) on 3/31/08, up from 7.9% at the end of December 2007. At first, past-due mortgages represented mostly high-risk loans made by borrowers with blemished, or "sub-prime" credit. But now, as the economy weakens and as home prices fall in many parts of the US, homeowners with better loans are also falling behind. About 9.7% of loans in 5 Midwestern states were past due (or in foreclosure) in the first quarter of 2008, vs. 10.5% in the 4^th quarter of 2007 (08B1). (In Midwestern states (like Michigan and Ohio) home prices did not soar as much as elsewhere in the US.)

So far, home prices in the US have fallen by 16% from their peak in the summer of 2006 - the point at which the real estate bubble began its disastrous collapse (Source: Standard & Poor's/ Case-Shiller index). Economists at Lehman Brothers expect the decline in US home prices to bottom out at 25% (relative to peak bubble prices?) (08B1). Comments: Later estimates in the fall of 2008 gave a prediction of a 40% reduction in home prices - apparently relative to peak bubble prices.

A $1 billion ad campaign run by Citicorp from 2001-2006 urged Citicorp customers to take out "home equity loans" (previously called "second mortgages.") Such loans were once considered to be the borrowing of last resort, to be avoided by all but people in dire financial straits. Since the early 1980s, the total value of home equity loans outstanding increased from $1 billion in 1982 to $100 billion in 1988 to more than $1 trillion in 2008. Nearly 25% of Americans with first mortgages have them. Part of the reason for this was that portions of home equity loans were tax-deductible (08S2).

In mid 2008, the portion of people who have home equity loans more than 30 days past due is 55% above its average since the American Bankers Association began tracking it around 1990; delinquencies on home equity loans are 45% higher (2008) (08S2).

For the first time since WWII, the portion of home value that Americans own (in 2008) has fallen to less than 50%. In the 1980s, that portion was 70% (08S2).

The cause of this huge transformation in indebtedness began in the 1970s and early 1980s when federal laws were changed to allow mainstream banks to offer second mortgages as well as loans with interest only, adjustable rates and so-called piggyback features combining first and second mortgages. Prior to that time, such products were marketed primarily to lower-income customers by savings and loan companies and financing companies such as Beneficial and Household Finance (08S2).

U.S. Household debt as a percentage of disposable income (09G1). 

Real estate is the biggest household asset at 36% of net worth - and real estate prices have not yet stopped falling (09G1).

US Household financial debt as a percentage of disposable income (from a graph). (09D1)

Experts predict a steady stream of defaults over much of the next decade as interest-only loans mature. Auctioned off at low prices, those foreclosed houses could help brake any revival in home prices (09S1).

There are currently 2.8 million active interest-only home loans worth a combined total of $908 billion. In the next 12 months, $71 billion of interest-only loans will reset. In the year after that, another $100 billion in interest-only loans will reset. After mid 2011, another $400 billion will reset. A decade ago, interest-only loans were rare. In 2004, nearly 50% of all home-buyers in California had an interest-only loan. Nationally, about 18% of prime interest-only loans are at least 60 days delinquent (09S1).

The savings rate in the US has been below zero during 2006-2008 (the lowest it has been since the Great Depression) (09R2).

In 2006, spending on advertising was estimated at $155 billion in the US, and $385 billion worldwide (09R2). The worldwide advertising figure is expected to exceed $500 billion by 2010 (09R2). 

Credit card debt of the average US consumer is over $3000, and the average household credit card debt is over $8000. These figures do not count the over $5000 of mortgage and auto debt that the average American carries (09R2).

More Americans now declare bankruptcy than graduate from college (09R2). 

The poorest 80% of the people in the US have seen very little rise in income since the 1970s (09R2). Today the average CEO in the US makes more in a day than the average worker makes in a year (09R2).

During the 10-year period from 1994 through 2003, personal bankruptcy filings in Japan increased from 40,000/ year to 240,000 (Source: The Financial Services Agency) (Yuka Hayashi, Wall Street Journal (4/27/06) p. C1) Comments: This may simply reflect Japan's economic downturn in the stock market during this period, which may have more to do with the real estate bubble than with globalization. When did the real estate bubble collapse?)

For American households with at least one person under age 35, the savings rate is minus 16% (06G3). (Americans have not spent less than they earned since the Great Depression of the 1930s (06G3).)

Since 1987, US home mortgages increased from $1.8 trillion to $8.2 trillion. ((Rcgd) - (07H1))

Since 1987, US consumer debt increased from $2.7 trillion to $11.0 trillion. ((Rcgd) - (07H1)).

Between 1987 and 2006, US household debt quadrupled. ((Rcgd) - (07H1))

The US government debt is now approaching $9.0 trillion (07H1). Comments: In around September of 2008 it exceeded $10 trillion.

The number of US families headed by people aged 55 or older with housing debt has increased steadily from 24% in 1992 to 36% in 2004, according to Employee Benefit Research Institute in Washington DC (Tim Grant, "Retiring with Debt," Pittsburgh Post Gazette (9/28/07)). ((rcgd) Section [3A9] on debt)

In the 4^th quarter of 2007, the number of American homes entering foreclosure rose to the highest level on record. More than 2% of all US mortgage loans were in the foreclosure process and 0.83% of loans entered the foreclosure process in the 4^th quarter of 2007. Both figures are the highest since records started being kept in 1972. (Mortgage Bankers Association data). The delinquency rate for home loans hit 5.82%, up nearly a 0.25% percentage point during the 4^th quarter of 2007 and the highest since 1985 when delinquency rates were over 6% (08R2).

In the 4^th quarter of 2007, homeowners' share of equity in their homes fell to a post-World-War-II low. In 2007, for the first time, American homeowners, in the aggregate, owed less than half the value of their houses. Their share of home equity dropped to 47.9% in the 4^th quarter of 2007 (Source: Federal Reserve in a quarterly report) Home equity as a percentage of home value has been falling from a high of more than 80% since 1945, when such data first started being recorded (08R2).

The total wealth of American households fell about $533 billion to $57,700 billion in the fourth quarter of 2007. (Another estimate computed a drop of $1.4 trillion during the 4^th quarter of 2007.) A major portion of the decline was in housing-related assets (including those that are mortgaged) fell by $170 billion to $20,200 billion. The value of other financial assets (e.g. stocks) fell by $254 billion to $45,300 billion (08R2). (Data for just one quarter may not have much significance.)

For most of the past decade British consumers went on a debt-financed spending spree that made them the most indebted rich nation in the world, accumulating a record US$2.8 trillion in debt (more that Britain's GDP). Personal debt in the US is $13.8 trillion, including mortgage debt, compared to the US GDP of $14 trillion. The average British adult has 2.8 credit cards, more than any other country in Europe. Britons have a household debt-to-income ratio of 1.62 vs. 1.42 for the US and 1.09 for Germany. In 2007, British housing foreclosures reached their highest level since 1999. Foreclosures are expected to increase in 2008 because more than one million homeowners have adjustable-rate mortgages that are expected to reset in the next 12 months to significantly higher rates. Less than 50% of Britons save regularly (08W1)

Of the 80 million homes in the US, about 55 million have mortgages. Of those, 4 million are behind in payments. Foreclosure proceedings were begun on about 1.5 million homes in 2007, up more than 50% from 2006. Foreclosures in 2008 are expected to be worse. Home prices could drop another 10-15% (08W2).

Moody's Economy.com estimates that roughly one in 12 American families (4 million in all) already owe more than their house is worth. By early 2009, nearly 25% (12 million homeowners) will owe more than their house is worth (08W2).

1995 - $70,000 // 2007 $140,000  (08W3). (This might reflect factors other than globalization.)

The net worth of the typical (median) American family rose only 1.5% after inflation between 2001 and 2004, according to a Federal Reserve survey done every 3 years (06C1). ($93,100 in 2004) It rose 10.3% between 1998 and 2001, and 17.4% during the 3 years prior to that (06C1). A stagnant stock market and rising debt offset many of the gains resulting from the booming housing market. Less affluent (bottom 25%) households lost ground to $13,300 during 2001-04, while the richest 10% of households increased their net worth by 6.5% to $831,600 during 2001-04 (06C1).

The median price of a primary residence in the US rose 22.1% after inflation to $160,000 in 2004. The typical (median) home-owning family had $95,000 in mortgage debt on its house (06C1).

The value of the median portfolio fell to $24,300 in 2004 from $36,700 in 2001 adjusted for inflation (06C1).

Mortgage and other debt as a percent of total family assets in the US rose to 15% in 2004 from 12.1% in 2001 (06C1).

Median net worth of US households headed by 25-34-year-olds, in 1998 dollars (Source: Economic Report of the President) (Greg Ip, "Report Plays Down Economic Woes", Wall Street Journal (2/14/06) p. A2.) ((Rcgd) Ch. 3)

A record 4.81% of US credit card accounts were at least a month behind in the second quarter of 2005 (USA Today (9/28/05)). This number surpasses the prior high, set in the first quarter of 2005. About 1.24 million Americans declared personal bankruptcy this year through 9/17/05. The US Federal Reserve has been increasing short-term lending rates since June 2004. Since banks must base their prime lending rates upon the Federal Reserve rate, this has led to higher loan rates. On average, these loans were at 6.75% in September of 2005, higher than at any time during the last four years. These rates are used for many short-term loans, including home equity lines of credit (Startribune.com (9/29/05)). (Note that consumer spending accounts for 2/3 of US economic activity (05U1)).

The US personal savings rate was negative for the first time since the Great Depression (excluding the month following 9/11/01). Now, the personal savings rate has been negative for three months in a row. Following a revised minus 0.3% rate in June, and a revised minus 1.1% rate in July, in August, the personal savings rate was minus 0.7%. Personal income during August also fell by 0.1%, as did consumer spending - by 1% (Washington Post (10/1/05)). What makes these statistics worrisome is that even though consumer spending decreased proportionately more than personal income, people still spent more than they earned. This indicates that Americans had to dip into savings, sell assets, or take on more debt to maintain their standard of living (05U1).

US Credit Card Delinquencies as a percent of total loans (smoothed data are from American Bankers Association, and appeared in the Pittsburgh Post Gazette (9/29/05)) (Rcgd)

Personal bankruptcy filings in the US have almost doubled in the past decade, reaching 1.58 million in 2004 vs. about 800,000 in 1995 (data of Administrative Office of the U.S. Courts). The Bankruptcy Coalition says these bankruptcies cost them $40 billion/ year and is lobbying Congress to tighten bankruptcy laws and make them more in favor of the lender (Laura Litvan, "Banks want changes in personal bankruptcy law", Pittsburgh Post Gazette (1/10/05), p. C18.). (Rcgd)

Estimated number of bankruptcy filers in the US, by age, in thousands (04H3)

College loans were taken out by 45% of full-time students in 2000, compared with 30% in 1990 (Wall Street Journal (6/2/04) p. A1).

The ratio of net worth to disposable personal income sank to a 7-year low of 4.9 in the third quarter of 2002 (vs. 6.3 at the end of 1999) (02I2). Comments: Some of this may be due to the slump in the stock market and thus be temporary.

US household wealth has fallen to its lowest level since 1995 - to $38 trillion according to the Federal Reserve (02I2).

Eliminating consumer credit would go a long way toward raising the personal savings rate in the US, but what politician wants to advocate that (87T1)?

Interest rates have fallen since 1980, making installment purchases of things such as cars easier (00M1).

The Federal Reserve reports that Americans' household wealth was 6.3 times income in 1999, vs. 5 times income in the early 1990s. This was due in part to the Dow earning a total compound return of over 18%/year between 1983-99 (00M1).

Losses by US Credit-Card Issuers in percent and Bankruptcy Filings in millions (from plots) (Eileen Alt Powell, Wall Street Journal (6/20/01))

US Consumer Debt ($trillions) and Household Debt-service Payments in percent of disposable personal income (from plots) (Federal Reserve data) (Eileen Alt Powell, Wall Street Journal (6/20/01))

In 1984, half of all retirees had a net worth (aside from their homes) of under $20,268 (91U1). (Needs data prior to start of globalization to be significant.)

Total Consumer Credit Outstanding, in billions of dollars (Wall Street Journal (3/29/01)) (from a graph)

Comments: The above data has apparently not been corrected for inflation or for population growth.

Personal Savings as a Percentage of Disposable Personal Income in the US (Commerce Department data) (from a plot) (Wall Street Journal (8/29/00)) (Rcgd) 

Total outstanding debt in the US is about $15 trillion, broken down roughly into one-third government debt, one-third business debt, and one-third consumer debt. Debt growth in the US economy is about 5%/ year - about the same rate as economic growth, unadjusted for inflation (Federal Reserve data) (Bernard Wysocki Jr., Wall Street Journal (7/28/97)).

Outstanding Debt of US non-financial Corporations ($trillions) (Federal Reserve data) (Wall Street Journal (12/31/99)) (from a chart)

Corporate Short-term Debt-load (Commercial paper outstanding issued by US non-financial corporations ($billions) (from a chart) (Wall Street Journal (12/21/00))

At the end of the third quarter of 2001, US corporate debt was $4.92 trillion and consumer debt was $7.53 trillion. At the end of 1989 the corresponding figures were $2.38 trillion and $3.36 trillion (Federal Reserve data as reported in Wall Street Journal, 1/2/02).

Personal Bankruptcies in the US in millions (from a chart) (ABI World data) (02S1) (More than 90% of people who file for bankruptcy do so because of job-loss, illness or divorce (02S1).)

Total average debt of households headed by someone aged 65+: $8000 in 1992, $23,000 in 2000 (Pittsburgh Post Gazette (7/8/02)).

A third of Americans spend so much of their incomes on housing that they cannot afford other necessities (Economic Policy Institute of August 1990). (Needs data prior to 1980 to be useful in the globalization issue.)

Banks closed due to financial difficulties (FDIC data) (Deposit data are in $billion)

Personal bankruptcies as a percent of total US households (Wall Street Journal (8/18/99)) (Administrative Office of the US Courts)

Personal Bankruptcy Filings (thousands) (ABI World, (1997)) (from a graph in Wall Street Journal of unknown date)

Personal Bankruptcies (Administrative Office of the US Courts data) (from a plot)

US Personal Savings Rate as a percent of Disposable Income (Wall Street Journal (12/21/98)) (from a graph)

Consumer Installment Debt (US) (Wall Street Journal (10/8/98)) $1.271 Trillion on 8/31/98 (up 4.1% in past year).

US Credit-Card Delinquency Rates (as a pct. of the total number of accounts) (Wall Street Journal (6/18/97)) (from a graph)

The National Foundation for Consumer Credit reports its average client owed $18,300 in 1990,vs. $9750 in 1986 (Wall Street Journal (8/12/92)).

SECTION [5-G] ~ JOBS AND LABOR-FORCE SIZE DATA ~ [G1] General, [G2] Factory, ~

Since the 1960s, the number of women in the US work force has been increasing. Since around 2000 that number has been declining (Bureau of Labor Statistics data) (08U1). It was found that this is not a matter of choice (e.g. to raise children) but a matter of economics. Women are being afflicted on a large scale by the same problems as men: downturns, layoffs, outsourcing, stagnant wages or outright pay cuts (08U1). Women have tended to bring home about a third of family income, and only those families with a working wife have seen real improvement in their living standards. The proportion of women holding jobs in their prime working years (25-54) peaked at 74.9% in early 2000. (72.7% in June 2008) (08U1). The pattern is roughly similar among the well-educated and the less-well-educated, among the married- and never-married, among mothers with teenaged children and those with children under age 6, and among white women and black women. Some 96% of men held jobs in 1953, their peak year (86.4% in 2008) (08U1). The biggest retreat has been in manufacturing, where more than one million women have disappeared from payrolls since the year 2001. Median pay for women aged 25-54 was $15.04/ hour in 2004 and $14.84/ hour in 2007 (inflation-adjusted) (Economic Policy Institute data). The corresponding wages for men today are about $2/ hour more (08U1). 

For the first time since the Great Depression, the American economy has added virtually no jobs in the private sector over a 10-year period July 1999 - July 2009. Total number of jobs has grown slightly, but only because of government hiring (09N1).

For the decade, there was a net gain of 121,000 private sector jobs. In an economy with 109 million such jobs, this indicates an annual growth rate for the 10 years of 0.01% (09N1). (NOTE: These figures might be warped by including much of the recession that began in December of 2007.)

Overall Rate of job growth for various occupations During July 1999- July 2009 (in %/ year) (09N1)

The August 2009 jobs data estimates that non-farm payrolls shrank for the 20^th consecutive month. Some 233,000 jobs were eliminated, in addition to the 247,000 eliminated in July of 2009. The unemployment rate increased back up to 9.5% from 9.4% in July of 2009. In the 3 months of winter of 2008-2009 more than 2 million workers lost their jobs (09G2).

The service sector of the US economy accounts for nearly 86% of all non-farm jobs in the US (09G2). (Comment: The manufacturing sector comprises most or all of the remaining 14%. That sector has been shrinking in recent decades because the bulk of the outsourced jobs in the US are in manufacturing.)

Since the 1960s, the number of women in the US work force has been increasing. Since around 2000 that number has been declining (Bureau of Labor Statistics data) (08U1). It was found that this is not a matter of choice (e.g. to raise children) but a matter of economics. Women are being afflicted on a large scale by the same problems as men: downturns, layoffs, outsourcing, stagnant wages or outright pay cuts (08U1). Women have tended to bring home about a third of family income, and only those families with a working wife have seen real improvement in their living standards. The proportion of women holding jobs in their prime working years (25-54) peaked at 74.9% in early 2000. (72.7% in June 2008) (08U1). The pattern is roughly similar among the well-educated and the less-well-educated, among the married- and never-married, among mothers with teenaged children and those with children under age 6, and among white women and black women. Some 96% of men held jobs in 1953, their peak year (86.4% in 2008) (08U1). The biggest retreat has been in manufacturing, where more than one million women have disappeared from payrolls since the year 2001. Median pay for women aged 25-54 was $15.04/ hour in 2004 and $14.84/ hour in 2007 (inflation-adjusted) (Economic Policy Institute data). The corresponding wages for men today are about $2/ hour more (08U1). (in gci-analysis3.doc [3A-18] (10/23/08))

For the first time since the Great Depression, the American economy has added virtually no jobs in the private sector over a 10-year period July 1999 - July 2009. Total number of jobs has grown slightly, but only because of government hiring (09N1).

For the decade, there was a net gain of 121,000 private sector jobs. In an economy with 109 million such jobs, this indicates an annual growth rate for the 10 years of 0.01% (09N1). (NOTE: These figures might be warped by including much of the recession that began in December of 2007.)

Overall Rate of job growth for various occupations During July 1999- July 2009 (in %/ year) (09N1)

The August 2009 jobs data estimates that non-farm payrolls shrank for the 20^th consecutive month. Some 233,000 jobs were eliminated, in addition to the 247,000 eliminated in July of 2009. The unemployment rate increased back up to 9.5% from 9.4% in July of 2009. In the 3 months of winter of 2008-2009 more than 2 million workers lost their jobs (09G2).

The service sector of the US economy accounts for nearly 86% of all non-farm jobs in the US (09G2). (Comment: The manufacturing sector comprises most or all of the remaining 14%. That sector has been shrinking in recent decades because the bulk of the outsourced jobs in the US are in manufacturing.)

An average of 15 million jobs were eliminated annually in the US over the past decade. But those jobs typically are offset by the creation of new jobs (04H2). Comments: The US population grows by about 1%/ year, i.e. by about 2.75 million people/ year. This suggests that the US job-creation rate needed just to accommodate population growth must be around 1.5 million per year.

A commonly used formula that purports to measure the size of the job loss says that every $1 billion increase in the US trade deficit equals a loss of 17,000 US jobs (95W1). Comments: There is another correlation for manufacturing labor elsewhere in this document (Section (5-I)).

Nearly two million factory jobs have disappeared since the recession began in December of 2007 (09U1).

The U.S. ranks behind every industrial nation except France in the percentage of overall economic activity devoted to manufacturing - 13.9% (World Bank data), down 4 percentage points in a decade (09U1).

Industrial production in the U.S. has fallen 17.3%, the sharpest drop during a recession since the 1930s (09U1).

Nearly two million factory jobs have disappeared since the recession began in December of 2007 (09U1).

The U.S. ranks behind every industrial nation except France in the percentage of overall economic activity devoted to manufacturing - 13.9% (World Bank data), down 4 percentage points in a decade (09U1).

Industrial production in the U.S. has fallen 17.3%, the sharpest drop during a recession since the 1930s (09U1).

South Carolina has lost roughly 30,000 jobs in textiles and 68,000 jobs in manufacturing since 1997, according to the South Carolina Employment Security Commission (Kelly K. Spors, Wall Street Journal (9/27/04) p. R6.)

Number of Factory Jobs in the US (millions) (Bureau of Labor Statistics) (from a plot) (Wall Street Journal in 1999)

The USDA's 2004 national assessment of food security estimates that 1.4 million Pennsylvanians were living at risk of hunger. That includes 336,000 people living in households where someone experienced hunger. Nationally, the USDA estimates that 38.2 million people were food insecure in 2004, including 13.9 million children. This latter figure includes 545,000 children living in households classified as "food insecure with hunger among children." (Steve Levin, "More families relying on food pantries for help, survey finds", Pittsburgh Post Gazette (4/29/06) p. B5.) (To be relevant to the globalization issue, there must be data from pre 1980.)

South Koreans are also feeling the financial stresses created by globalization. Among the major reasons mentioned for South Korea's low birth rate are instability of employment, and difficulty in meeting expenses involved in child-rearing ("South Korea: one in 3 Married Women Rejects Motherhood," Korea Herald (3/23/06)). (Rcgd)

Britain is suffering a baby "shortage" with potentially disastrous consequences as work pressures force young women to shelve plans for a family, according to dramatic new research urging an £11bn campaign to boost parenthood (06H1).

Women have not turned against becoming mothers and, if they could have the number of children they actually wanted, more than 90,000 extra babies a year would be born, according to calculations by the respected think-tank, the Institute for Public Policy Research. But the report says the professional and financial penalties of childbearing - a mid-skilled 24-year-old who gives birth will earn £564,000 less over her lifetime than a childless counterpart, as motherhood narrows her career options - mean many are delaying pregnancy until it may be too late to conceive. The findings of a government commission on working women, to be published in early 2006, has been struck by evidence of mothers being trapped in dead-end, low-paid, part-time work. Britain has 'too many women remaining involuntarily childless', the report concludes, while high fertility and early childbirth is 'systematically associated with severely reduced prospects'. If women had had, by the age of 36-38, the number of children they wanted when they were aged between 21-23, the birth rate would be 13% higher, it calculates. Only 5% said they did not originally want children, yet four times as many were childless by their late thirties (06H1). (Rcgd)

A fertility behavior project funded by the European Commission shows that more than half the people questioned would on average like at least two children. However, a great number of couples actually have fewer, due to worries about the future and the cost of raising children. The DIALOG project collected data from 30,000 people in 14 European countries on their attitudes and opinions concerning family numbers, fertility behavior and demographic change. The study shows that average desired fertility in Europe is still in line with the two-child family. More than half of all those questioned, male or female, wanted two or more children. There is a difference though, between the real and the desired number of children in countries like Cyprus, Poland, Finland, Estonia, Lithuania, Hungary and the Netherlands. There is also a drop of the desired number of children to below two in Germany, Italy, Austria and Belgium and the Czech Republic (06E1).

The declining importance attached to the institution of marriage and the rise in divorce rates do not necessarily translate into fewer births. In fact, births have remained steady over the last decade in the range of 1.2-1.4 children, with the percent of children born to unmarried mothers rising to 30-40%. However having children within marriage remains the preferred choice, especially in Southern and Eastern European countries, with approval rates of 80% in Italy, Lithuania and Poland. On the other hand, living together without having children is also becoming more acceptable, e.g. 26-31% of couples approve in countries like the Czech Republic, Germany and the Netherlands (06E1). For more information on the DIALOG project visit http://www.bib-demographie.de/ppa/Main.htm (Rcgd).

The Reagan administration's social-welfare cutbacks added only a few hundred thousand to the poverty rolls out of the 4 million people added to the poverty rolls since 1979. Far more fundamental economic forces were responsible for the overwhelming bulk of these additions (87T1). (Women and children account for 77% of those in poverty.)

Air rage, road rage, desk rage, surf rage, pedestrian rage etc. appear to be growing in the US according to the book "Road Rage and Aggressive Driving" by Leon James, Prometheus Books (2000). Air rage incidents, globally, increased from 1132 in 1994 to 5416 in 1997. Road rage killed 218 people during 1992-97 and left 12,610 people injured. Workplace violence - virtually unheard of until the 1970s -now costs businesses more that $36 billion/ year according to a 1995 report by the Workplace Violence Research Institute. About 14% of Americans are on the verge of exploding in acts of violence, according to the Anger Institute of Chicago (Pittsburgh Post Gazette (9/5/00)). Comments: One can also sense increasing rage from the clergy (fundamental churches) and in the attack ads seen on TV during election time.

Nationwide research led by University of California Los Angeles and University of Southern California physicians and published in New England Journal of Medicine, and another study at the University of Pennsylvania found that pervasive economic insecurity was an important contributor to assaults on women. Primary risk factors for male abusers include intermittent employment and unemployment (Julie Marquis, Los Angeles Times, published in Pittsburgh Post Gazette (12/16/99)).

The six-fold difference in black and white rates of domestic homicide disappears when "household crowding" is used as a measure of socioeconomic status (study in Journal of the American Medical Association during week of 6/25/95).

According to a Harris survey, the proportion of American feeling under great stress, either almost every day or several days per week, rose in the past decade from 28% to 33% (Gregory N. Racz, Wall Street Journal (3/12/93)).

Yankelovich Partners reports that half of the 1000 workers it surveyed have much more to do at work than 2-3 years ago. Some 42% of those surveyed reported spending less time with their spouses in the same period. Managing Work and Family, a consulting firm, says that among 150 couples seen in workshops and focus groups, those troubled by one partner's long work hours have doubled in 5 years. A University of North Carolina study of the impacts on the family of workaholism found that the number of spouses complaining about overworked mates have doubled in the past 10 years (Wall Street Journal (2/26/97)).

The number of adults living with their parents (in the US?) has doubled to 12% of the 25-34 age group, from 6% in 1960 (93Z2).

Since 1979 the number of poor people in the US South has risen from 9.4 million (15.6% of the population) to 12 million (18% of the population) according to the Southern Regional Council's report "Patterns of Poverty". The US Census Bureau reports that the number of poor across the US increased from 26 million in 1979 to 35 million in 1983 (Los Angeles Times (12/18/84)) (US Census Bureau data).

More than 25% of all black and Hispanic families live in poverty. More than 36% of all black children and 34% of all Hispanic children live in poverty (01U1).

The income of the poorest fifth of the US remained 12% below what it was 20 years ago, in 1979. In the same time period, the income of the top 20% of Americans rose 34% and the top 1% rose 85% (01U1).

Japanese homeless: about 1000 in the 1980s, 25,000 in 2002 (vs. more than 2 million in the US) (Pittsburgh Post Gazette, 7/?/02). Comments: Japanese are finding it hard to compete with a near-infinite supply of unskilled Chinese labor willing to work for 60 cents/ hour.

The proportion of Americans who report sleeping 7-8 hours/ night fell from 64% in 1983 to 58% in 1992 (a Harris survey reported by Gregory N. Racz, Wall Street Journal (3/12/93)).

The US Conference of Mayors found that, despite a booming economy, the number of Americans seeking emergency food or shelter rose significantly in 1999 and the trend will likely continue for years to come. In 1999, demand for emergency food aid grew 18%, and for shelter by 12%. A little over 20% of homeless people have jobs and more than 2/3 of those seeking emergency food aid are employed (Reuters (12/16/99)).

Percentage of Americans below the Poverty Line
(Paulette Thomas, Wall Street Journal (10/05/93)) (from a plot) (Census Bureau Data)

One in ten Americans sought emergency food in 1993 (data from Second Harvest) (Wall Street Journal (3/8/94)).

Some 27.12 million Americans received food stamps during 10/1994 (Source: US food and Nutrition Service data). (Needs data prior to 1980 to be useful for the globalization issue.)

It takes one million full-time, year-around employees in US manufacturing to produce $42 billion worth of goods. Hence the trade deficit of some four times that amount has squeezed more than 4 million workers out of manufacturing and forced them to take other work (87T1). Comments: This correlation needs to be corrected for inflation - and for productivity increases. Comments: The 1997 trade deficit in goods and services was about $105 billion.

In a period when total male employment was growing by 7.4 million jobs, 400,000 middle-income male jobs were disappearing (87T1).

As recently as 1950 there were 3 unskilled jobs for every skilled position. In 2000, jobs requiring skills are 4 times more prevalent than those for which manual labor suffices (00M1).

Since mid-1989, the American Electronics Association says, the domestic industry has lost 300,000 jobs (Kyle Pope, Wall Street Journal (3/30/93)).

The US high-tech work force shrunk by 100,000 in 1992 (Kyle Pope, Wall Street Journal (3/30/93)).

The 500 largest manufacturers have slashed nearly four million jobs since 1982 (93Z2). Defense workers and military personnel stand to lose 2.5 million jobs in the 1990s (93Z2). Aerospace industry workers, among the highest-paid blue-collar workers in the US have lost 1/3 of their jobs, and huge additional cuts are in the offing (93Z2).

A series of articles (93Z2) argues that major industries such as banking, construction, aerospace and defense are shrinking, perhaps permanently.

The US labor Department projects that the economy will produce about 26 million new non-farm jobs from 1990-2005, assuming a moderate 2.3% annual growth in GNP. More than 21 million of these jobs will come in the service sector and other low-wage occupations such as retail clerks, janitors and nurses aides. Two World Bank economists conclude in an internal study, unregulated trade will push wages "downward due to the vast number and rapid growth rate of underemployed populations in the Third World (Jonathan Tasini, Wall Street Journal (1/21/93)).

During 1979-1993 the proportion of white-color non-production employees to all employees in manufacturing rose from 28 to 32%. During 1979-93, the US manufacturing sector shed more than 3 million blue-collar workers (Gene Epstein, Barron's (11/8/93)).

An estimated 250,000 students took to the streets of Paris and major cities across France on 3/16/06 escalating a political rebellion by France's younger generation against a government that is floundering in its attempts to restructure a moribund economy. The protests began as a few campus demonstrations and expanded over the course of a week to turnouts in 80 cities and towns on 3/16/06. The students were protesting a newly passed law that would take effect in April of 2006 and make it easier to hire and fire young people at a time when youth unemployment in France averages 23%. The anger focused on a provision that will allow employers to fire employees under age 26 at any time during their first two years of work without cause (Molly Moore, Washington Post, "Students rebel in France," Pittsburgh Post Gazette (3/17/06) p. A5.).

A survey of 5000 people found that 51% were satisfied with their jobs in March of 2002, as compared to 59% in 1995. About 20% of workers were satisfied with their company's promotion policy and bonus plans, while 40% were content with their wages. Among the higher-earning households, job satisfaction was 67% in 1995, and 55% in 2000 and 2002. Less than 48% of people aged 35-44 were satisfied with their work in 2002, vs. 61% in 1995 (Robert O'Neil, AP, Pittsburgh Post-Gazette (8/22/02)).

The number of unionized workers fell sharply during 1985-95 in most of the 90 countries surveyed by the International Labor Organization, a UN affiliate. The decline was attributed to reduced public-sector employment, heightened global competition, a worldwide boom in non-unionized service jobs, and to local politics. US union membership fell 21% (Wall Street Journal (11/04/97)). Comments: The economic size of employers increased considerably during this same period, so the disparity in economic size between buyers and sellers or labor became even more exaggerated.

In 1980, 53 million households had more than one paycheck. In 2000, 68 million households had more than one paycheck (00M1).

In 1960, only 18% of women with children under age six were in the workforce. By 1995, 65% were. In constant dollars, after-tax earnings of Americans in retail trade (in 1995) were equal to those during the Great Depression (Pat Buchanan, "The Great Betrayal" (1998)).

Protectionist barriers are still a key defense for South Korea, and have helped in its transformation from one of the world's poorest countries in the 1960s to one of the richest. South Korea was mired in poverty for years after the Korean War in the 1950s. A military dictator built a modern economy in the 1960s and 1970s by assigning large companies to build different parts of the economy and protecting them with large import duties. In 2006, South Korea was the world's 10^th largest economy. The South Korean economy grew by 8-9%/ year for much of the 1990s, but its growth has recently slowed to 5%/ year. A key reason is that China is taking away South Korea's lead in low-cost manufacturing, and it now threatens South Korea's higher-value industries (07R1). ((Rcgd))

Environmental protection costs in Germany are 60% higher than the EU average (92R1).

By 1995 the average German workweek is contractually set to drift down to 35 hours/ week from 37.5 hours in 1992 (92R1).

Germany's corporate tax rate is half again as high as those in the US, Japan and France (92R1).

Homi Kharas (researcher at Brookings Institution) estimates that, by 2020, the world's middle class will grow to 52% of the global population, vs. 30% in 2008 (08N2). Comments: Much of this depends on the willingness (or ability) of the US to run huge trade deficits indefinitely, frequently along with huge federal budget deficits and huge current accounts deficits. This tends to decrease the value of the dollar.

During 2008-2009, the rich, as a group, have become poorer. During the prior 30 years, the super-rich became both wealthier and more numerous (09L1).

In 2008 the number of Americans with a net worth of at least $30 million dropped 24%. Monthly income from stock dividends have fallen more than 20% since 2008 - the biggest such decline since the government began keeping records in 1959 (09L1).

During the period from 1929-1979, income distribution tended to flatten. Since the early 1980s, incomes have tended to get less equal. For much of the 1950s, 1960s and 1970s, both the middle class and wealthy received raises that outpaced inflation (09L1).

In the late 1970s, the cutoff to qualify for the highest-earning household per 10,000 households was $2 million in inflation-adjusted, pre-tax terms. By 2007, this cutoff had jumped to $11.5 million. The cutoff to be in the top 1% of households doubled since the late 1970s, to $400,000. Median income ($50,000 in 2007) increased by less than 20% between the late 1970s and 2007 (09L1).

In 2007, the top household in 10,000 households took home 6% of the nation's income vs. 0.9% in 1977. This was the highest such level since at least 1913, the first year for which the IRS has data. In 2007, the top 1% of earners took home 23.5% of the nation's income, vs. 9% in 1977 (09L1).

Homi Kharas (researcher at Brookings Institution) estimates that, by 2020, the world's middle class will grow to 52% of the global population, vs. 30% in 2008 (08N2). Comments: Much of this depends on the willingness (or ability) of the US to run huge trade deficits indefinitely, frequently along with huge federal budget deficits and huge current accounts deficits.

During 2008-2009, the rich, as a group, have become poorer. During the prior 30 years, the super-rich became both wealthier and more numerous (09L1).

In 2008 the number of Americans with a net worth of at least $30 million dropped 24%. Monthly income from stock dividends have fallen more than 20% since 2008 - the biggest such decline since the government began keeping records in 1959 (09L1).

During the period from 1929-1979, income distribution tended to flatten. Since the early 1980s, incomes have tended to get less equal. For much of the 1950s, 1960s and 1970s, both the middle class and wealthy received raises that outpaced inflation (09L1).

In the late 1970s, the cutoff to qualify for the highest-earning household per 10,000 households was $2 million in inflation-adjusted, pre-tax terms. By 2007, this cutoff had jumped to $11.5 million. The cutoff to be in the top 1% of households doubled since the late 1970s, to $400,000. Median income ($50,000 in 2007) increased by less than 20% between the late 1970s and 2007 (09L1).

In 2007, the top household in 10,000 households took home 6% of the nation's income vs. 0.9% in 1977. This was the highest such level since at least 1913, the first year for which the IRS has data. In 2007, the top 1% of earners took home 23.5% of the nation's income, vs. 9% in 1977 (09L1).

In 2004 the US economy grew 4.2%, yet the Census Bureau reported that real median family income fell, and poverty increased. (Rcgd) 

In 2004, even if capital gains are excluded from a rising stock market, the real income of the richest 1% of Americans surged by almost 12.5%. The average real income of the bottom 99% rose 1.5%. People in the 95^th percentile of income distribution (people richer than 19 out of 20 Americans) gained only modestly. The real earnings of the typical college graduate fell in 2004. (Rcgd) 

US minimum wages, in real terms, are at their lowest level in 50 years. (Rcgd) 

The US unemployment rate (counting only people actively seeking work) for people ages 20-24 is 8.2%, vs. 4.4 for those aged 25-34 (06G3).

The median US real wage has not risen in real terms over the past 25 years, but real wages of the top 1% have more than doubled (06M2).

The richest 1% of Americans today controls almost 20% of total US income, a proportion higher than at any time since the Roaring Twenties (06M2).

Effect of Educational attainment on US wages and wage growth (Wage changes are inflation-corrected.) ("Some college" includes associate degrees.) (06W3) ((06W4) (Rcgd)