Time 'Til Oil Depletion

We can make an excellent approximation to the time when the world's supply of oil runs out.

The time to depletion is simply the supply divided by the rate of consumption. From British Petroleum both these values are available. They are;

Supply or proven reserves amounts to: 1 208 200 million barrels at the end of 2006

Global consumption of oil in 2006 was: 83.719 millions of barrels of oil a day

However, math is never simple. Here, we must consider that the rate of consumption and the rate of discovery of new reserves constantly changes. As long as we find reserves at a faster rate than we consume the energy, our future energy supplies will not be in doubt. The following chart gives an indication of the year over year change in these values.

We can still determine the number of years until the reserves run dry. We start by using known values for 2006 as indicated above. Next, we select the expected percentage increase in annual oil consumption and in discoveries. Do this in the form below then click the 'Update' button to determine the time to this event.

Consumption Reserves


With this, about from 2006 January 1 will pass until complete global depletion.

And, from now!

Obviously if we continually use less or the same amount than we discover, we will never run out. But, we are on a finite Earth so this is not a realistic future.


Our saving grace so far is that we continually find new reserves. Yet, these aren't infinite. For example, the North Sea oil reserves, recently developed, are already nearing depletion. Further, any new finds are always in a location that is more difficult to access. Hence, we will need more energy just to extract the energy. Thus, future reserves won't have the same benefit to society as current proven reserves. All this should be enough of a cause to consider making viable, worthwhile plans for the future.

by Mark Foster Mortimer